According to the late Sir James Plimsoll [in conversation with me], Mao Zedong said to Prime Minister Nehru when the two met in 1954 that, in a war with any adversary China could afford to dedicate 100 million dead. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.". Are bills set to rise? "Would Australia have taken steps to make sure its own intelligence is based on Australian information and assessments? Hugh White,who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis: I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australias support, could win a war with China over Taiwan.. It is very plausible to say there is no guarantee of victory in the first phases, Lyle Goldstein, a research professor at the Naval War Colleges China Maritime Studies Institute, told Newsweek. "But it is an entirely different story with China. Credit:Getty. And that takes the issue of US-China military prowess back to the all-important issue of politics. Such possibilities seem remote at present. A successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan would punch a hole in the U.S. and allied chain of defenses in the region, seriously undermining Americas strategic position in the Western Pacific, and would probably cut off U.S. access to world-leading semiconductors and other critical components manufactured in Taiwan. "As I see the decision for the invasion of Iraq I think it was made by the Prime Minister. Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. As a career strategic analyst and defense planner, including for Australias Defense Department, I have spent decades studying how a war could start, how it would play out and the military and nonmilitary operations that China is prepared to conduct. China is now the dominant global industrial power by many measures. Americas military power is very great, but Chinas military power, and especially its capacity to deny its air and sea approaches to US forces, has grown sharply, and is now formidable, Professor White warned. I don't think so! The map below, compiled from data provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is the most accurate nuclear attack map and fallout demonstration available for 2023: (Image courtesy of FEMA and Halcyon Maps) The fallout would rapidly spread, turning targeted cities into whole affected regions. The high-altitude balloon that drifted across the United States this month was seen by many Americans as a shocking Chinese breach of U.S. sovereignty. It would be relatively easy for China to establish a credible air and sea exclusion zone around Taiwan, and thereby put immense pressure on the Taiwanese to accept Beijings terms. What would war with China look like for Australia? "I do not know whether Defence planners in Canberra would have made such estimates. All it would take is one wrong move. "Unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into conflict, and their families, a war with China will have an impact on all Australians economically, financially, and personally. We cannot lose a single inch of the lands we inherited from our ancestors, the Chinese Defense Ministrys Information Bureau recently proclaimed, and we would not take a single cent of others possessions., RELATED: Drums of war: Ominous China warning. Fundamentally, it would follow the strategic prescriptions of Sun Tzu in The Art of War. "This would be a far cheaper and less risky way to achieve its objectives. Admiral Chris Barrie says that with all the "overblown rhetoric" about the possibility of war against China he thinks there is a danger of forgetting that war should only ever be taken as the last means of resolving insurmountable differences between nation states. "In the past, when I was working in government, we sometimes offered ministers some indication of the possible cost in lives if things went badly in the kind of lower-level commitments that we made in the 1990s. China also has more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles poised to strike U.S. and allied forces in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and American-held territories in the Western Pacific. "They're aggressively expanding their influence," he said. "That's what General Douglas Macarthur found in 1942. "Rather, there are three scenarios that may be pursued in combination: "Invasion may be preceded by a blockade and firepower strikes. Mr. Xi, who likes to say that the East is rising while the West is declining, evidently feels that Americas greatest weakness is on its home front. As with the Gulf War in 2003, Washington is always keen to enlist as many countries as possible to spread the cost and political risk. The most immediate fight, however, appears to be centred on Taiwan. They have different opinions on a range of issues, but one thing that is striking about the four is what they agree on. But China is a different kind of foe a military, economic and technological power capable of making a war felt in the American homeland. "The mobilisation for all this would take many months and US intelligence would detect it and know in advance what was being planned. As president, Joe Biden has stated repeatedly that he would defend Taiwan. The divergence of the two Taiwan scenarios, a Chinese military attack or an invasion, says a lot about the relative military power of the US and China, itself a barometer of the strength of the two superpowers. Don't Do It: An All-Out War With China Could End Humanity It is a bad idea to get into a shooting war with a fellow nuclear power. This is what a statesman should do as a risk averse response. "It is possible that the impact on Australia could be greater than any other assailant because of our low population. AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/what-would-war-with-china-look-like-for-australia-part-1/101328632, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article, Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman, Looking deeper at China's military strategy, The conversation we need to have about China, These engineers break their silenceafterdecade of criticism over2011 Queensland flood handling, Tens of thousands of pigs and buffalo pegged for mass culls in Kakadu, in bid to curb feral animals, With Russian forces closing, Svyat rolled the dice in the last days before Bakhmut fell, Anna called police to report an assault, but it backfired and she lost her home, Home ownership remains in fantasy territory for many. The United States cannot win a war against China over Taiwan, four Australian defense experts have said in a series of interviews conducted by the . And each one would require a heavy investment of equipment and lives to neutralise if they could be reached in the first place. the outcome for the U.S. was not a good one, a new report revealed this week. Even with robotic flying tanker support, these enormous ships must operate dangerously close to an enemy before their F-18 Super Hornets and F-35B&C Lightnings are of any use. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. Destroy the offensive capability of the PLAN and People . Find out more about our policy and your choices, including how to opt-out. No doubt Australian passions would run high. Far fewer know their real story. Modern aircraft particularly the F-35 stealth fighters in Australias arsenal need tender loving care. Australia had long maintained it didn't have to choose. Hugh White, who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis: "I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan." How this young Indigenous artist is taking inspiration from anime and manga to celebrate his own culture, NBA star Ja Morant suspended, 'takes full responsibility' for nightclub gun video, Andrew Tate shuts down cancer rumors, is accused of recruiting politicians to his cause, 'If carers are going to survive, they need this', says resident pioneering dementia respite care centre. "So, how would China prosecute the war? "This is the critical question. China has built the world's largest navy and has become increasingly assertive over contested areas such as the South China Sea. Fishing boats could push into ancestral territory, backed up by armed coast guard vessels. The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. But is Taiwans fate any of our business, as Beijing insists it isnt? A Chinese close-in weapons system (CIWS) designed to shoot down incoming missiles during recent war games. Where are our statesmen?". After multiple clashes between Australia's regional partners and China, tensions are rising. And that is where any fight to resolve Taiwan's fate will be resolved. Thinking of scale I am reminded that In 1944 the US alone out-produced the rest of the world combined in all war stores before the wars ended in 1945. A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/opinion/a-war-with-china-would-reach-deep-into-american-society.html, more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles, worlds largest navy and Asias biggest air force, the East is rising while the West is declining. These flew out of Japan and down the east coast of Taiwan to operate near the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier battle group and the Chinese Liaoning. "Washington would expect Australia to contribute the full range of our air and naval forces to the maximum extent of our capability, including surface warships, submarines, F-18 and F-35 fighters, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft and tanker aircraft.. He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building both capability and capacity, "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". There are plenty of nations with grievances against China for its South China Sea policy. Now it is China. US-China war over Taiwan would be biggest since WWII, Australian expert says. President Xi Jinping of China has said unifying Taiwan with mainland China must be achieved. His Communist Party regime has become sufficiently strong militarily, economically and industrially to take Taiwan and directly challenge the United States for regional supremacy. Steaming at 25 knots, an aircraft carrier in Pearl Harbour would take about a week to reach Taiwan. And Beijing has the advantage of geography. The US is suddenly no longer the world's only military superpower. And given Beijings singular focus on finding a way to sink US-style aircraft carriers, their capacity to carry combat aircraft into effective range has been dramatically curtailed. Chinas military build-up is making a difference. Principles matter, he writes. Defeat the affirmative expeditionary purpose of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). In July 2020, BeiDou, Chinas version of GPS became fully operational, allowing it to track ships, planes, cars and smartphones from space without relying on the US technology that has dominated global positioning for decades. And I cannot see America being willing to risk Chinese nuclear retaliation against the US homeland for Taiwan's sake. "Nor can it rely on the US for resupply by sea once a conflict begins. "Wars contain elements of the irrational: pride, fear, ego, confidence, humiliation, and other emotions that elude our attempts at calculation. "It would suffer high attrition and its military modernisation and even its one-party Communist rule would be threatened. Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst with ASPI's Defence, Strategy and National Security Program, told Daily Mail Australia it is increasingly likely President Xi Jinping will order Chinese forces. This last outpost of pre-Communist China is an embarrassing thorn in Chairman Xi Jinpings paw. The leaders of both Ukraine and Russia are expected to meet with China's president in the near future. In providing for our own defence we ought to be able to make sufficient and good quality plans provided we have the will to do so. "If we joined the fight, or allowed US forces involved to operate from bases here, then there would be a clear chance that Australia would face direct attack from Chinese long-range forces. A month earlier, Xi Jinping had told the Peoples Liberation Army: We should persist in using combat to guide our work; step up preparations for war.. An embarrassed politician may suddenly feel compelled to enforce a vague red line. One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan. But all the US planes cannot be dispatched to Chinas coastline. Over the past two decades, China has built formidable political warfare and cyber warfare capabilities designed to penetrate, manipulate and disrupt the United States and allied governments, media organizations, businesses and civil society. Mastro notes that in war scenarios the US wants to maintain the status quo in the region while China wants to change it. "At the time what I could see was the possibility that our intelligence had uncovered the spectre of WMD in Iraq. Only a decade ago, the US would have easily dominated the Chinese military in almost any scenario, says Australian National University Professor Stephan Fruehling. "I worry when politicians start to think it is acceptable to use the media to make threats about war. This is how we got here and what needs to change, 'Please confirm what Muslim refers to': Why Ali's birthday payment for his nephew was flagged by his bank, Kade was a fit 31-year-old when he died from a heart attack, Sherpa are world famous for their work, which is synonymous with their name. The war in Ukraine reminds us of how uncertain these things canbe for both sides. China had 55 small war ships in 2020, more than double the number it had five years ago. The United States might be forced to confront the shocking realization that the industrial muscle instrumental in victories like that in World War II President Franklin Roosevelts concept of America as the arsenal of democracy has withered and been surpassed by China. Taiwan is within that zone: 180 nautical miles. The Australian government has moved to confront Beijing over allegations of human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian has joined a chorus of. Beyond 10 years, who knows? China would seek to pluck out the eyes and ears of the US and allies to make them blind on the battlefield, said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Until then, it is important for Washington to avoid provocations and maintain a civil discourse with Beijing. Taiwans Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said on June 3 that Taipei did not anticipate a conflict was going to break out any time soon, but we are trying to get ourselves ready. The impact on Americans would be profound. Rockets figure heavily in Beijings arsenal. It was Kevin Rudd who coined the phrase a "decade of living dangerously". Behm says the impact on Australia of a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war this country has participated in since World War II. On the military front, the United States should accelerate programs already underway to strengthen and disperse American forces in the Western Pacific to make them less vulnerable to attacks by China. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. And that makes the kind of island-hopping campaign used by the US to take back the Pacific from Japan in World War II no longer feasible. In the previous column the analysesof Hugh White a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence and Admiral Chris Barrie who served as Australia's most senior military leader as Chief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002were explored. Australia is underperforming and leaving itself wide open as longstanding fears look set to come true. "Specifically, China would probably favour four principal avenues for marginalising or defeating Australia. We hope that Australia will fully understand the high sensitivity of the Taiwan issue, adhere to our One China principle, be cautious in its words and actions, refrain from sending any wrong signals to the secessionist forces of Taiwan independence, a foreign ministry spokesperson said. One of the reasons for that is the land force preponderance of the US over the opposing forces. "There would thus bea high chance that involvement in a war with China would swiftly exceed the toll in casualties suffered in Vietnam and Korea.". "In the case of war with China the questions we need to ask ourselves are: "When I stepped down as the Chief of theDefence Force in July 2002 I had not seen any information leading to the conclusion that an invasion of Iraq was inevitable. The almost daily probes of Taiwans air defences would suddenly turn serious. Were working to restore it. "Australia's real utility is as a strategic asset, giving both legitimacy and credibility to the US decision to employ its very formidable military force, and at the same time providing the US with a secure rear that could guarantee logistic and operational support. Our economy would be paralysed as all trade with China and other major East Asian partners would stop dead and may not resume for a long time. Chris Zappone and Eryk Bagshaw June 30, 2021 China-US superpower showdown: military strength Matthew Absalom-Wong The Pentagons latest threat assessment found China has already achieved parity with or even exceeded the United States in several military modernisation areas, including ship building, land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, and integrated air defence systems.. Behm says a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war Australia has participated in since World War II. The Australian Imperial Force (AIF) was of marginal utility. The idea sounds grand charging forth, flags flying, to save a bullied island friend. The US has launched 615 satellites into space in the last three years, compared to 168 by China, according to Lowy. A blockade may be preceded by firepower strikes. Dr. Babbage is the author of the forthcoming book The Next Major War: Can the U.S. and Its Allies Win Against China?. China or the US could do this by feeding misleading information to satellites from the ground known as spoofing to stop the space-based location pinpointing needed for weapons. "China can impose huge costs on the US and perhaps indefinitely deny air control to the US in that zone. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. This is how we got here and what needs to change, 'Please confirm what Muslim refers to': Why Ali's birthday payment for his nephew was flagged by his bank, Kade was a fit 31-year-old when he died from a heart attack, Sherpa are world famous for their work, which is synonymous with their name. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. While these have been costly, they also provided invaluable combat experience. "In a war involving Taiwan, US forces would be deployed over long distances from CONUS [Continental United States]. One accident. China might compound this with electronic and probably some physical attacks on satellites or related infrastructure. "For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.. Former defence minister, Christopher Pyne, told an audience in Adelaide that Taiwan was the most likely next flashpoint in the region. The Pentagon views China as the "pacing threat," Gen. John "Mike" Murray, head of Army Futures Command, said March 17 during remarks at the Association of the United States Army's virtual Global Force Next conference. As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. It could take months to restore trade, and emergency rationing of some items would be needed. Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) analyst Dr Malcolm Davis disagrees. Rebuilding them could take years. But its own submarines, combined with air and land launched missiles, could present an almost constant threat. Let's take a look at who would . Anyone can read what you share. Today, Chinas military spending is the second-highest in the world after the United States and continues to rise. "Australia has been there before. These are all Cold War allies of the US, but they have not had to think about war in the region since the 1970s.

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