They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaskas special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this past weekend. They also consider whether abortion as an issue will motivate voters in other elections this fall and look at the primary winners in Arizona, Missouri, Michigan and Washington. Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why. Please subscribe to the Dow-ballot on Apple Podcasts and leave . The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. fivethirtyeight podcast transcriptsapplications of stepper motor ppt. MANAGER'S SALARY. Its a bold suggestion, and in this installment of the podcast we interrogate it. As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. In the main event, former light Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and policing. They also look back at 2021, try to pinpoint the most consequential political events of the year and discuss how their understanding of American politics was challenged. Politics Podcast: Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless', Politics Podcast: How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear, Politics Podcast: Some Republicans Are Souring On Aid To Ukraine. The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. FiveThirtyEight Politics on Apple Podcasts 200 episodes FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News News 4.5 19.2K Ratings FEB 21, 2023 What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection It's a busy week! They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful. They also discuss the accuracy of opinion polling conducted in authoritarian Russia and war-torn Ukraine. We hear about the decade-long relationship between the two of them, one that dates back to the Kennedys arrival in Washington in the mid-50s, and hear fascinating observations these women make about each other. The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. The podcast crew discusses what Rep. Liz Cheney might do next with her message and what an independent bid for president might entail. 9 days ago. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling.". send a tweet. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom. Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." They also discuss why gas stoves became such a hot topic of debate on the internet and what the 2024 primary for U.S. Senate in California will look like. In recent weeks, Democrats odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict. The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short and long term. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties. The State Of The Polls, 2016. Galen Druke speaks with the director of the Harvard study, Robert Waldinger, about the lessons his findings have for politics in America. They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump. As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. FiveThirtyEight - YouTube Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. New rules for the baseball season, Richard Belzer dies and more prison for Harvey Weinstein and R. Kelly | Bonus sports & entertainment episode. Since Jacksons confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings similar to past ones were more about politics. The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former President Donald Trump. Preview of Spotify. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major cities, and special elections for a handful of vacant House seats. The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. What to do about George Santos | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast In Part 2 of this podcast, the crew asks why House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has declined to call Rep. George Santos to resign and considers a poll showing that 60% of his district's voters want him to. Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. They also discuss how the country has changed demographically and geographically over the past decade, based on the newly released 2020 census data. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill. Sept. 25, 2014. negro-leagues-player- ratings. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. Serial's new true-crime podcast, The Coldest Case in Laramie, revisits a 1985 murder. Galen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their careers in Republican politics and conservative thought. The crew discusses how Russias invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of Russia's aggression. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the court overall. What does it take to make democracy work? Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics. And lastly, they check-in on the gubernatorial recall efforts in California that are very likely to result in a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom. The crew discusses what the political environment is likely to look like in 2022 based on history and current indicators. FiveThirtyEight Podcasts - FiveThirtyEight Podcasts Politics Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. They also take a look at the endorsements former President Trump has made in 2022 congressional primaries and discuss why worries about inflation can be so politically potent. The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures. The crew also takes a look at the changes to election law that Republicans have proposed in Georgia and other states after Trump's loss in 2020. While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. They also ask why support for gun control measures hasn't translated into new laws and look at steps the Pew Research Center is taking to ensure they have a representative sample of Republicans in their panel surveys. The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. From host Jody Avirgan (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums, pitches, pools and slopes that shed a light on the ups and downs of being human. They consider how much. The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. What do we know about the novel coronavirus, and what do we know we don't know? A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. The majority of the coverage did not show signs of bias, such as articles on immigration, midterm elections and the Jan. 6 hearings. The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local public opinion. The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. The Negro League Stars That MLB Kept Out And Is Finally Recognizing. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections. Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. Transcript for What if America had a lot more political parties? The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. President Bidens $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. Politics Podcast: American Opinion Of China Has Plummeted, Politics Podcast: Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech, Politics Podcast: How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did, Politics Podcast: The Politics Of Loneliness, Politics Podcast: The Elections Happening In 2023. Make sure you select the language your Podcast episode is recorded in when uploading your audio. geoffrey.skelley: After West Virginia, the most vulnerable Democratic seats are Ohio and Montana. In his new book "Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America," Washington Post national columnist Philip Bump argues that many of the fissures that the country is facing today politically, economically, culturally have to do with the Baby Boomers getting old. Five Thirty-Eight sometimes referred to as 538, focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. 2,. Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could.". Its October and the surprises are rolling in. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, Schwartz and McMenamin: 11/29/21. Politics Podcast: Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of Model Talk.". On the final day of COP26, we look at whether these types of international agreements actually shape countries climate policies and whether there are other factors that are more important. The Gabfest, featuring Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz, is the kind of informal and irreverent discussion Washington journalists have With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency. They also consider how Rep. George Santoss scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign. Thanks! The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be. They also rank the Senate races that will be most important in determining which party controls the Senate next year. Galen speaks with him. American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. They also consider the causes of hyperinflation, as Democrats and Republicans blame different culprits for the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. Finally, they analyze why Bidens approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July. In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and the likelihood of Congress reaching a compromise. As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment. Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Download this theme at theoneamradio.bandcamp.com/track/whatspoint-theme. Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how abortion has played a role in elections this year and when we should know the results of next months midterms. June 2, 2016. Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are joined by two climate modelers and authors of the latest IPCC report, Friederike Otto and Baylor Fox-Kemper. The first half of this episode originally aired on November 5, 2018, and was produced by Dan Pashman, Anne Saini, and Aviva DeKornfeld, with editing by Gianna Palmer and mixing by Dan Dzula. Democrats overperformed in two special elections on Tuesday, including a win in New York's 19th district, which is four points more Republican than the national partisan lean, according to FiveThirtyEights metric. A lack of those relationships can actually have an impact on political behavior and interest in extreme ideologies. The crew talks about the appeal of celebrity candidates and what it tells us about our politics. Galen Druke speaks with Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio about whether that trend continued in the 2022 midterms and what it all means for 2024. A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the terms major cases, particularly on election law. What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? The crew discusses what legal debates are currently playing out, what the decision could mean for the future of Roe v. Wade, and where Americans stand on abortion restrictions in general. Posted by October 30, 2021 bangladesh police ranks on fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts October 30, 2021 bangladesh police ranks on fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts And they try to guess what Americans think about love and relationships in a Valentine's Day-themed game. The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. File Upload. Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. His new book is called "The Engagement: Americas Quarter-Century Struggle Over Same-Sex Marriage.". Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night's primary elections.Website: http:. They also debate the usefulness of new polling on Americans superhero preferences by partisanship and preview the upcoming Jan. 6 hearings. is it illegal to wear military uniform in australia. Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. January 23, 2023 Examined What comes next after Texas school shooting? The crew reacts to Senator Raphael Warnock's win in the Georgia Senate runoff. They also look at the politics of two hot button issues in the Senate and speak with Carlos Odio of Equis Research about how Latino voters are viewing the two parties in 2022. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting. Our tool analyzes your audio using Google voice recognition. The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. Sign up to get unlimited songs and podcasts with occasional ads. The crew discusses the races to watch in 2023. But you can form your own by listening and learning (and learning how to listen). The cofounders of Equis Research -- a political data firm focused on Latino voters -- share their research on why that swing happened. 04:58 PM. 10 Wednesday AM Reads. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but its not the only one. According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans leading economic concern. FiveThirtyEight Politics Biden Is Set To Be The Next President 2020-11-07 The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election. They also check in on where the redistricting process stands around the country and ask what the two parties should be thankful for this Thanksgiving. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances. Then the crew explains why they consider four competitive U.S. House districts to be bellwether elections for which party will win control of the House. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in 100 16 in 100 . They also mark two years since the U.S. shut down in response to the coronavirus pandemic, by using data to explore some of the ways American life has changed in that time. Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment trial. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. They determine whether we live in a free or repres Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. Above, storm clouds over downtown Laramie, Wyo., on Aug. 13, 2022. The Rules of the Game podcast discusses and compares democratic institutions from around the world. The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has responded. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and, of course, whether or not hot dogs can be considered sandwiches. Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. If Europe, and of the shop leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store when you rating. In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. It's a busy week! By May 21, 2021 0 . They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome of the 2022 midterms. [00:00:19] In this installment of Model Talk," Nate and Galen reflect on the many twists and turns of the 2022 campaign so far, including the most salient policy issues and what the final results could tell us about pollsters performance this cycle. We also look at the future of inflation with economist Kenneth Rogoff. The crew asks whether comparisons to former President Donald Trump's own classified document scandal are apt. They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting. The idea of the celebrity politician isnt going away just because former President Trump is out of office. The crew follows up on last weeks Republican 2024 primary draft with its first Democratic primary draft. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. Over the weekend, the White House announced that five more classified documents from the Obama administration were found at President Biden's Delaware home. Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. Cardozo Law Professor Kate Shaw discusses that evidence and its legal ramifications. You have to take and pass a grammar test, then submit a transcription template before you can get assignments from Rev. Happy holidays! Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnsons time in office. Then the content will get automatically transcribed. The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. It's easy. The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNNs new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling. Zach and ESPN's Michael Schwartz break down the red-hot Suns ahead of their showdown with the Warriors, then ESPN's Dave McMenamin checks in on the Lakers -- plus . It was a night of firsts, with the first primaries of 2022 taking place in Texas and President Bidens first real State of the Union speech. The crew discusses how much the two parties are spending on campaign ads and if it could factor into the forecasts shift. The crew discusses how President Bidens executive action that forgives up to $20,000 of student loan debt will impact politics and the economy. The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. FiveThirtyEight's COVID-19 podcast is laser-focused on evidence. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump after his supporters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6. FiveThirtyEight's political content often includes fact-driven statistical analysis. Rev. david senak now. The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." Although much of our elections-related attention is already trained on 2024, there are consequential elections happening this very calendar year. Tyler's intense research leads to stimulating and surprising . Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. Happy holidays! The results are mixed in terms of which factions of both parties performed well and the marquee Republican Senate primary race in Pennsylvania is still close to call and could remain that way for days. President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided Congress. They also explain why a dramatic shift among independent women in a recent New York Times poll shouldn't be taken at face value but also shouldn't undercut the poll. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data. Atlantic writer Emma Green joins to talk about her recent article, "The Liberals Who Can't Quit Lockdown.". Digital Expert Zone; Our Services; About Us; Get In Touch; Shop; dyckman shooting 2021. fairfield, ct concerts on the green 2021 0. The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster. Find us at ThisDayPod.com. Their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020 looks at which voters were likeliest to favor Trump and offers some hypotheses as to why. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data.". The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. These articles reported facts without employing biased word choice, slant, or other types of media bias . In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their Model Talk hats on and discuss the initial results from the 2022 midterms. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer a more moderate Justice among the Liberals retires.

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